By Andy May

“The atmospheric heat transport on Earth from the Equator to the poles is largely carried out by the mid-latitude storms. However, there is no satisfactory theory to describe this fundamental feature of the Earth’s climate.”

(Barry, Craig, & Thuburn, 2002)

This is the transcript of the talk I gave in Tom Nelson’s podcast interview here.

After Leon Barry and his colleagues write the above statement in their Nature article, they write that the middle latitudes are a zone of strong temperature gradients and these gradients generate storms that can be severe. Their paper proposes that the severity of the storms is proportional to the temperature gradient, such that the smaller the temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles, the fewer severe storms are needed to accomplish the task of transferring excess tropical energy (or heat) to the poles. Keep this concept in mind as I describe meridional (north-south) energy transport.

By Andy May

The Creative Society ask to interview me on the 20^th century climate shifts that Dr. Javier Vinós and I discussed in Part IV of our series of posts on Javier’s Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis. I don’t agree with a lot of the Creative Society ideas, but we do agree that open discussion on the future of mankind is important. I was pleased that an organization that has such a different outlook on civilization would want to interview me, a proponent of small and local government. More discussion and debate between differing worldviews is needed today. The interview was October 10^th, but it has not been posted or published yet.

Most of this talk is based on Chapter 11 of Javier Vinós’ new book: Climate of the Past, Present, and Future: A Scientific Debate. This is a graduate school level review of natural climate change processes, an often-ignored area in modern discussions of climate science. The book comprehensively introduces Javier’s new Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis of natural climate change.

Guest Post By Javier Vinós

1. Introduction

The Winter Gatekeeper Hypothesis, proposed by this author in his book “Climate of the Past, Present and Future” (Vinós 2022), is based on evidence that climate change is primarily the result of changes in poleward energy transport, and that solar variability is an important modulator of this transport. If correct, the hypothesis will provide a new answer to two important questions: How climate changes naturally on the multi-decadal to the millennial time scale, even in the absence of changes in the greenhouse effect, and how changes in solar activity can profoundly affect climate despite their small energy changes. One conclusion of the hypothesis is that the Modern Solar Maximum of 1935-2005 contributed to 20^th-century global warming, implying a significant reduction in climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide.

by Javier Vinós & Andy May

“On the other hand, I think I can safely say that nobody understands climate change.”

J. Vinós, paraphrasing Richard Feynman’s words about quantum mechanics.

7.1 Introduction

This unplanned plain-language summary has been written at the request of some readers of our series of articles on the Winter Gatekeeper hypothesis:

by Javier Vinós & Andy May

“No philosopher has been able with his own strength to lift this veil stretched by nature over all the first principles of things. Men argue, nature acts.”

Voltaire (1764)

6.1 Introduction

Climate is a thermodynamic process determined by the energy flux from its entry point, mostly at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) of the tropics on the day side of the planet, to its exit point distributed across the TOA of the entire planet. The Earth’s infrared emission depends on the absolute temperature scale, and on this scale the planet’s surface temperatures occupy a narrow range. The average outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) emission of the planet is c. 240 W/m² and the all-sky average for most of the surface is in a relatively narrow 200–280 W/m² range (Dewitte & Clerbaux 2018). OLR is determined more by the irregular distribution of atmospheric water (cloud and humidity) than by surface temperature. The cloud effect on OLR can reach –80 W/m² (negative values mean cooling) in some equatorial areas. Thus, while 62 % of the energy enters the climate system over 25 % of the Earth’s TOA area (the 30°N-S daytime side), its exit is much more evenly distributed over the entire TOA area.