IEA: Global Coal Power Generation to Reach a New High in 2022

By Andy May

It’s official, the IEA believes that coal-powered electricity generation will rise 9% in 2021 to an all-time high, once the final numbers are in. For the details see their new report here. It is not paywalled.

The rise is driven by China and India, these countries account for two-thirds of global coal consumption. The IEA expects coal use in China and India to grow dramatically in 2022 driving global consumption to a new record of 8,025 million tonnes. They also expect coal production to plateau after 2022, but they always predict that. The problem is renewable energy growth cannot keep pace with global electricity demand growth. Possibly, natural gas production and nuclear could, but will it happen?

Continue reading

Viral, A Review

By Andy May

Alina Chan is a molecular biologist specializing in gene therapy and cell engineering at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard. She partnered with the famous science writer, Matt Ridley, to write Viral, the Search for the Origin of COVID-19. The book was published November 16, 2021, and the combination of Dr. Chan’s expertise and Dr. Ridley’s impeccable writing skills make the book read like an Agatha Christie whodunnit. It is fascinating, educational, and an entertaining read. Well worth your time. This review is based on the Kindle version.

Continue reading

Climate Change 2021

Steve Milloy sums up the fight against human-caused climate change in 2021, here is his list of the ten largest failures.

Continue reading

Total Energy Used and petrochemicals

By Andy May

It came up in conversation: How much oil and gas goes into plastics and fertilizer production? It turns out the IEA has a 2018 report on this very topic. They have a separate 2020 report on total energy used in 2019. The reports contain some interesting graphs and data. Below is a comparison of total energy use in 1973 and 2018, from the Key World Energy Statistics 2020 Report.

Continue reading

Help, what is happening with our universities?

By Prof. Dr. IR. Guus Berkhout

This is an English translation of a letter by Guus Berkhout of CLINTEL that was published in De Telegraaf, the largest newspaper in The Netherlands earlier this week.

In recent years we have seen the strangest things happening to our universities. Professors must be extremely careful about what they teach. If they present scientific results that do not fit the ideology of activist movements, their lives are made difficult and they even run the risk of being excommunicated. Joining the consensus is by far the safest. The Boards of Governors do not protect their professors; on the contrary, they are solidly behind the activists.

Continue reading

Autocorrelation in CO2 and Temperature Time Series

By Andy May

In my last post I plotted the NASA CO2 and the HadCRUT5 records from 1850 to 2020 and compared them. This was in response to a plot posted on twitter by Robert Rohde implying they correlated well. The two records appear to correlate because the resulting R2 is 0.87. The least square’s function used made the global temperature anomaly a function of the logarithm to the base 2 of the CO2 concentration (or ‘log2CO2‘). This means the temperature change was assumed to be linear with the doubling of the CO2 concentration, a common assumption. The least squares (or ‘LS’) methodology assumes there is no error in the measurements of the CO2 concentration and all error resulting from the correlation (the residuals) resides in the HadCRUT5 global average surface temperature estimates.

Continue reading

#autocorrelation, #co2, #durbin-watson, #temperature

CO2 and Temperature

By Andy May

I had a very interesting online discussion about CO2 and temperature with Tinus Pulles, a retired Dutch environmental scientist. To read the whole discussion, go to the comments at the end of this post. He presented me with a graphic from Dr. Robert Rohde from twitter that you can find here. It is also plotted below, as Figure 1.

Continue reading

Temperature Regulated Cooling Dominates Warming and Why the Earth Stopped Cooling At 15°C

Guest Post by Wim Röst

Abstract

It is said that the Earth’s surface temperature variations are controlled by [human-induced] greenhouse gases1. This is not the case. When cooling systems dominate, surface temperatures are set by the cooling system and not by the system that is warming the surface. On Earth the surface cooling system dominates; temperatures are set by the natural cooling system. The strength of natural surface cooling is set by temperature. Adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere does not make any difference for surface temperatures. Their initial warming effect is neutralized by extra surface cooling and by a diminished uptake of solar energy. The cooling system dominates.

Continue reading

Holocene CO2 Variability and Underlying Trends

Guest Post by Renee Hannon

Introduction

This post compares CO2 data from Antarctic ice cores during the Holocene interglacial period with other publicly available CO2 datasets. Antarctic ice CO2 is regarded as the gold standard for paleo-atmospheric global CO2 during past interglacial and glacial periods. Antarctic CO2 does capture the multi-millennial underlying trend; however, short-term centennial trends are not evident. By examining a wider range of CO2 data from Greenland ice and plant stomata, a more complete picture of past natural centennial CO2 fluctuations emerges.

Continue reading

The Old Farmer’s Almanac Seasonal Forecasts

By Andy May

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been making yearly long-term weather forecasts for 230 years. We pay attention to them because they are normally 80% accurate. They did not do as well last winter but were 72% in predicting the direction of temperature change, and 78% accurate in the change in precipitation. This is pretty remarkable because while the U.S. weather forecasts are 90% accurate five days in advance, they are only 80% accurate seven days out. The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts are far less specific, they only predict the direction of change, but their forecasts are for twelve months in the future, quite impressive. Figure 1 is their forecast for the lower 48 United States, for this winter.

Continue reading