Category Archives: ECS

Stefani on the Sun vs. CO2 as climate drivers

The solar aa index predicts global sea surface temperatures to 2000 better than CO2, and as well as CO2 combined with the aa index. After 2000 CO2 is needed in the regression.

Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS

By Andy May To read this post in German see here, translation by Christian Freuer. The IPCC and the climate “consensus” believe that essentially all warming since 1750 is due to man’s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases as shown in figure 1 here or in (IPCC, 2021, p. 961). This has led toContinue reading “Climate Models, Clouds, OLR, and ECS”

More on the statistical dispute between Scafetta and Schmidt

By Andy May The argument about the proper way to estimate error in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 weather reanalysis dataset between Nicola Scafetta and Gavin Schmidt has finally been published by Geophysical Research Letters. Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy’s comment is here (Schmidt, Jones, & Kennedy, 2023), and Scafetta’s response isContinue reading “More on the statistical dispute between Scafetta and Schmidt”

The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 4, converting observations to ECS

By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they mean, especially those reported in the latest IPCC report, AR6. In part 2 we discussed the uncertainty in estimating cloud feedback to surface warming, andContinue reading “The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 4, converting observations to ECS”

The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity?

By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they mean, especially those reported in the latest IPCC report, AR6. In part 2 we discussed the uncertainty in estimating cloud feedback to surface warming, andContinue reading “The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity?”

The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds

By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The yearly net impact of clouds on outgoing and incoming radiation varies over one W/m2 from year-to-year, according to CERES satellite data.[1] AR6 tells us that cloud feedbacks, to GHG surface warming, are the largest source of uncertainty in their assessment of theContinue reading “The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 2, the Impact of Clouds”

The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 1

By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. The climate sensitivity to CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) is arguably the most important number in the climate change debate. AR6[1] claims the sensitivity, which they call “ECS” or the equilibrium climate sensitivity, is three degrees per doubling of CO2, or 3°C/2xCO2Continue reading “The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 1”