By Andy May
The argument about the proper way to estimate error in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 weather reanalysis dataset between Nicola Scafetta and Gavin Schmidt has finally been published by Geophysical Research Letters. Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy’s comment is here (Schmidt, Jones, & Kennedy, 2023), and Scafetta’s response is here (Scafetta N., 2023a).
I first wrote about this dispute earlier in the year here. Nothing much has changed in the final versions.
Schmidt, Jones, and Kennedy’s assessment of the error in the ERA5 surface temperature dataset average still (incorrectly) assumes that, during such a period, the global surface temperature was constant from 2011-2021 and that its yearly variability is due to random noise. This is clearly a nonphysical interpretation of Earth’s climate, since there are real systematic changes in the climate from year to year, whether one assumes they are due to natural or man-made forces, or both.
Continue reading “More on the statistical dispute between Scafetta and Schmidt”