By Andy May The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been making yearly long-term weather forecasts for 230 years. We pay attention to them because they are normally 80% accurate. They did not do as well last winter but were 72% in predicting the direction of temperature change, and 78% accurate in the change in precipitation. ThisContinue reading “The Old Farmer’s Almanac Seasonal Forecasts”
Category Archives: Climate prediction failures
Sea Level Model Fail
From a post by Arnout Jaspers at clintel.org. In 2016, a headline grabbing study said that the Antarctic ice sheet is much more unstable than [previously] estimated. As a consequence, projected sea level rise in 2100 would double. Computer modelers from Deltares and KNMI scrambled back to their drawing boards to upgrade their prognoses forContinue reading “Sea Level Model Fail”
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CMIP6 and AR6, a preview
By Andy May The new IPCC report, abbreviated “AR6,” is due to come out between April 2021 (the Physical Science Basis) and June of 2022 (the Synthesis Report). I’ve purchased some very strong hip waders to prepare for the events. For those who don’t already know, sturdy hip waders are required when wading into sewage.Continue reading “CMIP6 and AR6, a preview”
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The problem with climate models
By Andy May In my last post, on Scafetta’s new millennial temperature reconstruction, I included the following sentence that caused a lot of controversy and discussion in the comments: “The model shown uses a computed anthropogenic input based on the CMIP5 models, but while they use an assumed climate sensitivity to CO2 (ECS) of ~3°C,Continue reading “The problem with climate models”
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A New Millennial Global Surface Temperature Reconstruction
By Andy May Nicola Scafetta has written a new paper (Scafetta, 2021) in Atmosphere on a new millennial surface temperature reconstruction. This is his latest “what if the models are accurate?” analysis. Scafetta’s idea is, let’s assume a model is correct, what are the implications? Previously, he examined the PMOD solar model, by assuming itContinue reading “A New Millennial Global Surface Temperature Reconstruction”
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Climate Model Failed
By Andy May On January 22, 2021, John Christy presented a new online talk to the Irish Climate Science Forum. The talk was arranged by Jim O’Brien. A summary of the presentation can be read at clintel.org here. In this post we present two interesting graphs from the presentation. These compare observations to the IPCCContinue reading “Climate Model Failed”
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An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment
By Andy May The U.S. Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Volume II is out and generating a lot of discussion. Volume II, Impacts Risks and Adaptation in the United States to climate change can be downloaded here (Reidmiller, et al. 2018). Volume I, published last year, on the physical science behind the assessment is hereContinue reading “An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment”
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Do humans harm the environment?
By Andy May This is the first of seven posts on the potential costs and hazards of human-caused global warming and the impact of humans on the environment in general. The IPCC WGII AR5 Technical Summary, defines “hazards” on page 39: “The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physicalContinue reading “Do humans harm the environment?”
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Some Failed Climate Predictions
Guest post by Javier Here, for the first time in public, is Javier’s entire collection of massive, “consensus” climate science prediction failures. This collection is carefully selected from only academics or high-ranking officials, as reported in the press or scientific journals. Rather than being exhaustive, this is a list of fully referenced arguments that showsContinue reading “Some Failed Climate Predictions”
