It has always been a bit of a mystery why the IPCC CMIP models reproduce the tropospheric temperature profile so poorly, here we try and explain the problem.
Author Archives: Andy May
Testing the Dew-Point Anchor Hypothesis
By Andy May and Philip Mulholland Earlier this year Philip Mulholland published the details of his Dew-Point Anchor Hypothesis or “DPAH” (Mulholland P. , 2026a). The hypothesis assumes that the Dew-Point Lifting Condensation Level (LCL), as calculated from surface conditions in the tropics, can act as an anchor for the lower and middle troposphere. ThisContinue reading “Testing the Dew-Point Anchor Hypothesis”
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Do Los Niños cause climatic cooling?
By Andy May This post is available in German, courtesy of Christian Freuer, if you prefer that language. See here. We’ve seen a lot of news stories about an upcoming El Niño, that may turn into a so-called “super” El Niño over the next year. This will affect our weather for a year or two,Continue reading “Do Los Niños cause climatic cooling?”
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The Moist-Adiabatic Theory vs. Reality
Climate models rely very heavily on moist adiabatic assumptions, which contributes to the persistent model-observation mismatch in the tropics, why?
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Calculating Earth’s Albedo, Part 2
What is the best way to compute albedo from CERES data?
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CERES Albedo
The most interesting things I discovered while studying and cross checking the CERES EBAF variables.
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Earth Energy Imbalance: The Sun versus CO2
Do solar and greenhouse gas radiation affect ocean heat content in the same way?
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ECS, EffCS, and the 25-year Paradox, What CERES tells us
Computing ECS from CERES data.
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TOA EEI versus Surface Net Flux
The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is calibrated or “tuned” to match changes in ocean heat content. The satellite top-of-the-atmosphere radiation measurements are not accurate enough to measure the value without tuning. But we only have 20 years of good data. Given the Atlantic Multidecadal Ocean or AMO oscillation is 60-70 years long, is 20 years enough?
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Stefani on the Sun vs. CO2 as climate drivers
The solar aa index predicts global sea surface temperatures to 2000 better than CO2, and as well as CO2 combined with the aa index. After 2000 CO2 is needed in the regression.
