By Andy May
Christian Freuer has translated this post into German here.
This is part 6 of a seven part series, the other parts are listed below:
1. What is a climate model?
2. Modeling Greenhouse Gases
3. Solar Input
4. Convection and atmospheric correlation
5. Storminess
7. IPCC AR6 WGIII
The previous parts of this series investigated model bias in the CMIP6 models and in their interpretation in AR6 WGI. This part looks at model bias in AR6 WGII, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. The IPCC WGII report uses the possible future climate projections from the WGI report to project the future impact of climate change on society. It uses socio-economic models to accomplish this. As we saw in the previous parts of this series, the WGI report is biased and ignores possible natural contributions to recent observed global warming from changes in the Sun, cloud cover, and the meridional transport of energy.
The WGI/CMIP6 models, rather arbitrarily, assign all warming since 1750 to human influences, particularly CO2 emissions. WGII accepts this controversial conclusion. It uses projected CO2 emissions combined with the WGI/CMIP6 models to predict future temperature and projected knock-on effects to other climate components, like precipitation, to model the future impact on human civilization.
Continue reading “Climate Model Bias 6: WGII”