Climate Change and Photography
By Andy May
I originally planned to discuss the North Pacific Index (NPI) in this post, but while researching it, I discovered something interesting about Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and how it relates to the HadCRUT5 global average surface temperature. As a result, this post is about the total Pacific mean SST and its correlation to HadCRUT5.
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 7: The Pacific Mean SST”By Andy May
The Atlantic Meridional Mode Index (AMM) describes meridional variability in the tropical Atlantic. The area of interest is the ocean area inside 32°N to 21°S and from 75°W to the West African coastline (~15°E). Sometimes the boundaries are given as: 22°S-32°N and 74°W to the West African coast. This is the region where the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) exists as it moves north and south with the seasons (Chiang & Vimont, 2004).
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 6: Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM)”By Andy May
The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is also called the Southern Annular Mode or SAM. It is defined as the difference between the zonal (meaning east-west or circumpolar) sea level air pressure between 40°S and 65°S. That is the sea level pressure at 65°S is subtracted from the sea level pressure at 40°S (Gong & Wang, 1999). As the difference increases and SAM becomes more positive, the Southern Hemisphere circumpolar westerly (clockwise as viewed from above the South Pole) winds move closer to Antarctica and generally increase in intensity.
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 5: SAM”By Andy May
In post 1, I ranked fourteen climate oscillations in Table 1 by their regression statistics against the HadCRUT5 global surface mean temperature. In this regression study the AMO is number one, the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool Area is #2, and the Northern Hemisphere sea ice area is #3. The fourth in importance is the Length of Day or “LOD.” Longer periods (>10 years) of acceleration in Earth’s rotation speed (shorter LOD) correspond to years of increasing zonal (east-west) circulation and global warming, whereas periods of deceleration (longer LOD) indicate less zonal acceleration and periods of cooling (Lambeck & Cazenave, 1976).
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 4: The Length of Day (LOD)”By Andy May
Northern Hemisphere sea ice area is an important climatic indicator because it determines how much of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are open to the atmosphere. Ice is a good insulator and traps heat in the water below it (Peixoto & Oort, 1992, p. 361). Ice is also a good reflector of sunlight (high albedo), whereas water is a good absorber (low albedo). While we have no accurate data on Northern Hemisphere sea ice area (called NH_ice here) before 1978, the first year of good satellite data, it does appear to follow the global 60-70-year global climate oscillation (Wyatt, 2020). This may be because the closely related AMO affects the sea ice area as it warms and cools, of course the reverse could also be true.
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 3: Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area”By Andy May
As seen in the first post of this series the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the WHWP (Western Hemisphere Warm Pool) area are the two climate oscillations that explain most of the variability (64%) in the HadCRUT5 global mean surface temperature reconstruction (GMST) since 1950. Adding the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) explains 77% of HadCRUT5 variability.
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 2: The Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP)”By Andy May
My last two posts, Musings on the AMO and The Bray Solar Cycle and AMO were fun to research and write, and they helped show that solar variations and cycles do have an impact on climate change regardless of what the IPCC says in AR6 WGI and their other reports.
Continue reading “Climate Oscillations 1: The Regression”By Andy May
My last post on the AMO and HadCRUT5 generated some interest and some criticism. As I explained, there are two common methods of computing the AMO index. One is to fit a least squares line to the AMO SSTs (sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic) and use the line to detrend the AMO, creating an index. This was the original methodology as described by Enfield, et al. and Gray, et al. It is the method I prefer because it makes no assumptions about the origin of the increasing SSTs in the North Atlantic.
Continue reading “The Bray Solar Cycle and AMO”By Andy May
We hear a lot about the AMO, or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. How much does it influence the global mean surface temperature or GMST? Exactly what is the AMO? These are the issues we will discuss. First let’s look at various definitions of the AMO.
Continue reading “Musings on the AMO”What does the April 2025 Spanish power failure tell us about how we compare solar and wind to stable fossil fuel and nuclear power generation?
By Andy May
Global energy demand and consumption rose 2.2% in 2024 to a record high according to the 2025 IEA Global Energy Review released in March 2025. Growth in fossil fuel consumption accounted for 54% of the growing demand and growth in renewables and nuclear power accounted for the remainder. Most of the consumption growth was in emerging nations. The total energy supply for 2022-2024 is given in Table 1.
Continue reading “Energy Consumption in 2024 and the Spanish Power Failure”
