The planet is no longer warming

By Javier


We define “warming” as a positive rate of temperature change over time. According to the main hypothesis, warming since 1951 has been due almost exclusively to the increase in GHGs (greenhouse gases), of which CO2 is the most important one. The IPCC does not find anything else that has contributed to the observed warming. Continue reading

Poverty and Energy

By Andy May

Poverty and access to energy are closely related. Although it probably isn’t possible to show that access to energy is the key reason so many have been lifted out of poverty in recent decades, the data and logic suggests that this so. In the United States, the average person uses about 300 million BTUs of energy per year according to the EIA. This is equivalent to the manual labor of 69 healthy people working hard for 6 hours per day. Worldwide, the average person uses 73 million BTUs, the equivalent of 16 hardworking people.

Prior to the industrial age, which began with the first practical coal- and wood-fired steam engines between 1712 and 1776, slavery, bonded servants and serfs were common, this group made up over 90% of the world’s population in 1800. For a few people to live well they needed lots of servants and domestic animals to do the manual labor for them. Now, in the age of electricity, petroleum and nuclear powerplants, most manual labor can be done by machines. No longer do a few wealthy people live from the labor of others, everyone who has access to energy can live well. Before the industrial age, nearly everyone was extremely poor as seen in Figure 1, today fewer than 10% are extremely poor. Continue reading

Strong Arctic sea-ice growth this year

Guest Post by Javier

February is not over, and Arctic sea-ice extent is already over half a million square kilometers higher than last year at this day.

The growing season has not ended, and 2019 Arctic sea-ice extent is already higher than the previous four years and six out of the last 14 years.

Figure 1. Arctic sea-ice extent. Note the left edge of the graph is February 1, not January 1.


Arctic sea-ice has stubbornly resisted the very warm years between 2015-2017 caused by the big El Niño. Are we going to see an increase in Arctic sea-ice over the next few years? Only time will tell, but the idea cannot be discarded.

Antarctic sea-ice is also growing this year with respect to last year, so global sea-ice extent is going to see an important jump this year.

Stay tuned for the March results but the “Arctic melting pause” is alive and kicking 12 years later. It started the year Al Gore said Arctic sea-ice was doomed. Talk about timing.

Who do you trust? Trump or the News Media?

By Andy May

Sloppy journalism undermines press credibility and helps Trump and other powerful politicians since their fourth-estate constitutional watch-dogs are not credible.  The press are considered less truthful than Trump by the public.  Trump is considered truthful by 49% of the public, the news media is considered truthful by only 39% according to an Emerson College poll in 2017. Gallup has found that only 32% of the public trusts the media news.

Source: Polination.

Continue reading

The Effects of the Bray Climate and Solar Cycle

By Andy May

Javier has posted three new essays on the Bray climate and solar cycle on Judith Curry’s web site. Part A is here, part B is here and Part C is here. In these posts, he lays out the evidence, in some detail, for the climate cycle and the associated solar cycle. Here I will summarize the results of his analysis and explain why it matters. The Bray solar and climate cycle are arguably the most important climate/solar cycle of the Holocene Epoch. Continue reading

New York Times Lies about Trump Lies

By Andy May

The New York Times published a list of Trump’s “lies,” told during the period January 21 through November 2017, on December 14, 2017 here. It contains 106 unique Trump statements. I’ve classified these statements, in as objective a way as possible, but obviously many of these judgements are subjective and others might classify them differently. To help others review my work, I prepared a spreadsheet database that can be downloaded here. The database contains the date, the “lie,” an explanation, one or two sources for more information and context, the category for the “lie,” an explanation for the category, the New York Times (NYT) category, and an explanation for the NYT category. Table 1 is an example table entry and Table 2 describes the categories. Continue reading

It’s the gradient, stupid!

How does the Sun drive climate change?

Guest Post by Javier

The dispute between scholars that favor a periodical interpretation of climate changes, mostly based on astronomical causes, and those that prefer non-periodical Earth-based explanations has a long tradition that can be traced to the catastrophism-uniformitarianism dispute and how the theory of ice ages (now termed glaciations) fitted in. Continue reading