By Andy May
It came up in conversation: How much oil and gas goes into plastics and fertilizer production? It turns out the IEA has a 2018 report on this very topic. They have a separate 2020 report on total energy used in 2019. The reports contain some interesting graphs and data. Below is a comparison of total energy use in 1973 and 2018, from the Key World Energy Statistics 2020 Report.
In the 45 years between 1973 and the end of 2018, the energy share of oil dropped significantly and most of this energy was replaced by coal, natural gas, and nuclear. Wind and solar (part of “other”) increased a little, but the increase makes little difference. Biofuels, mainly wood burning, dropped nearly as much as “other” increased.
In The Future of Petrochemicals IEA 2018 report, we find that about 14% of the world’s oil and 8% of the world’s natural gas are used as feedstocks for producing petrochemicals. The petrochemical industry produces thousands of products we use every day. They include plastics, fertilizer, clothing, electronic devices, medical equipment, medicine, tires, solar panels, wind turbine blades, batteries, and insulation. The report points out that the demand growth for plastics and fertilizer are outpacing the demand growth for steel, aluminum, and cement. Petrochemical product demand has nearly doubled since 2000 and the U.S. and Europe use twenty times as much plastic and ten times as much fertilizer as India, Indonesia and other developing countries on a per-capita basis. This means the explosion in growth will not abate anytime soon. Figure 2 compares the growth in plastic production to the growth in other areas and GDP since 1971.
Of the nearly 10 million b/d growth in demand for oil projected for 2030, the petrochemical sector accounts for more than 33%. The sector also accounts for more than 7% of the expected increase in demand for natural gas. Petrochemicals are the largest component of projected demand growth for oil and gas until 2030.
The conclusions are obvious.
- The growth in solar and wind powered electricity makes no difference, the impact on fossil fuel use is lost in round-off.
- Petrochemicals are critical for our lives today and they are growing faster than total energy use.
- Coal, oil and natural gas are here for a long time to come. They will probably be replaced someday as a source of energy, but the only candidate on the horizon is nuclear.
Andy, this is fascinating information! I’d never seen these figures, and I thank you for them. I didn’t realize that such large percentages of oil and gas are used for non-energy purposes.
Do those pie chart slices for oil (31.6%) and gas (22.8%) include the 14% of oil and 8% of gas which are used for non-energy purposes, or are those charts of energy-production-only?
Also, what is the plastics vs. fertilizer breakdown? I assume that plastics are the bigger share, because fertilizer production probably just uses natural gas, and not oil (is that right?). But how much?
Also, when we say “fertilizer,” are we talking just about nitrogen fertilizer, or are we also talking about some other kinds of fertilizer, too?
Also, from the perspective of carbon emissions, I assume that plastic is sequestered fairly long term, but what about the carbon in natural gas, when natural gas is used to make fertilizer? Ammonia contains no carbon, so where does the C in CH4 go, when it is used to make fertilizer?
Since the numbers are from two different reports, it is unclear. But I assume that the total energy numbers (TES) do not include the pure feedstock for petrochemicals. I think TES is only energy, but energy is used to make plastic. See box 2.1 (page 28) in the report “The Future of Petrochemicals” report linked in the text for more details. Some of the feedstock is counted as fuel and some not, the accounting is fuzzy.
See page 30 in the report “The Future of Petrochemicals” report.
Just nitrogen
The C goes to CO2. Methane and water make CO and 3 H2s, then CO and water make CO2 and one H2. The hydrogen is used to make ammonia.
Andy: This is Jim Janota from Illinois still spreading the Clintel message.
Have you more recently received any newer Plastics and petrochemical data on WW demand.
Or should I try to look for an updated version of “The Future of Petrochemicals” or somewhere else?
This site has some updated data that might help you:
https://www.statista.com/topics/8418/petrochemical-industry-worldwide/#topicOverview
But, the IEA article linked in the post is the best source I know of.